BlackBerry Upgraded One Day And Down The Next…. What’s Up With That?

It’s got to suck to be BlackBerry’s management at this moment. According to the Financial Post, RBC analyst Mark Sue, who now projects that BlackBerry will ship 14 million BlackBerry 10 devices this year, up from his earlier projection of 11 million units. That’s good and BlackBerry stock went up as a result yesterday. But today, Bernstein Research sent BlackBerry stock into the toilet by downgrading the stock based on the following:

Senior analyst Pierre Ferragu also cut Bernstein’s 12-month price target to $10 US per share. Previously, Bernstein had rated the shares “market perform” with a price target of $15. It also cut his Canadian price target to $9.66 Cdn from $14.49.

Initial enthusiasm for its new Blackberry 10 devices appears to be waning and the company is “now set to disappoint investor expectations for the second half,” Ferragu writes in a note to clients.

“Our latest channel checks suggest that consumer take up is slow and we believe adoption of BB10 in the enterprise may be slow and only partial,” he says. “Our checks with operators and distributors in Europe also point to a slow take up of BB10 devices by consumers, and confirm the slower ramp of the Q10.”

The lack of traction is starting to appear in the form of discounts applied to the new BB10 devices, Ferragu says.

The report also raises concerns over the prospect of BlackBerry losing ground with corporate clients.

“We also see increased risk of only partial adoption of BB10 among corporate customers,” Ferragu says. “Blackberry 10 is being tested at only 60% of Fortune 500, which implies the share of defectors could be very large.”

Where’s the truth? I must admit that I am helping customers dump BlackBerry for iPhones and Android phones by implementing ActiveSync on their Microsoft Exchange e-mail servers. But there are going to be companies out there that won’t dump the folks from Waterloo under any circumstances. So I suspect we will have to wait until their numbers hit the street to see where the truth is.

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