Windows 8: 100 Million Licenses Shipped, Only 59 Million In Use

Microsoft seems to have more creative accounting abilities than a tax lawyer. In this article, the software giant was critical (via a blog posting) towards people who didn’t like Windows 8. They also said this:

So let’s pause for a moment and consider the center. In the center, selling 100 million copies of a product is a good thing. In the center, listening to feedback and improving a product is a good thing. Heck, there was even a time when acknowledging that you were listening to feedback and acting on it was considered a good thing.

So, Microsoft is saying that they sold 100 million copies of Windows 8. But the thing is, that may be an overstatement according to ComputerWorld:

Microsoft counts a license as sold when it provides a customer an upgrade or one of its OEM partners a copy for a new PC, tablet or “convertible” device. The licenses to OEMS make up the bulk of that 100 million. According to Microsoft, the number it regularly cites for Windows 8 licenses sold — and before that, for Windows 7 — exclude those sold to enterprises as part of their volume licensing agreements.

But because Microsoft considers a license sold — and accounts for it on the books that way — as soon as a Windows-powered device comes off the factory line, its “sold” label includes those PCs, tablets and ‘tweeners that have been built but not yet purchased by a customer. OEM inventory, whatever is in retail or a warehouse, or for that matter, in transit from factory to destination, counts as sold Windows licenses.

That makes their numbers look good, but they aren’t accurate as those licenses may not even be in use. Now Microsoft does know how many licenses are in use as they have to be activated for people to use the OS. But Microsoft won’t hand out that figure because it might be embarrassing to them. The article goes on to say this:

Coming up with a number in the face of Microsoft’s refusal to divulge activation data risks wild inaccuracies. But without Microsoft’s cooperation, that’s all that’s available, as research firms’ varied estimates of such things as PC shipments attest.

Usage share metrics from California analytics company Net Applications can be combined with Microsoft’s claim that 1.4 billion Windows PCs run Windows worldwide, a number reiterated Tuesday by Julie Larson-Green, who heads Windows development. Caveats apply: Net Applications’ data is based on accessing the Internet, so it cannot account for hardware that doesn’t go online, and the firm massages its raw data, weighting users by their country of origin, to come up with what it believes is a more accurate representation of operating system usage.

For April, Windows 8’s average usage share was 4.2% of all Windows PCs, according to Net Applications’ data. That number included what Net Applications labeled as “touch” for Windows 8 and Windows RT, those tablets and touch-enabled notebooks that browse the Web from the “Modern” user interface (UI) rather than the mouse-and-keyboard UI of the traditional desktop.

Four-point-two percent of 1.4 billion equals approximately 58.6 million, the number of devices using Windows 8 last month.

That’s not 100 million. Now, if you ask my opinion, I think the number might actually be less than that. My reasoning is simple. If the numbers were good, they would just say so. The fact that they refuse to say how many licenses are activated says to me that they may have something to hide. Now Microsoft could prove me and everyone else wrong by saying “X number of Windows 8 licenses have been activated.”

So Microsoft. Will you do that?

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