The IT Nerd

One thing that I have been asked a lot since Apple Silicon became a thing is how long can someone hold onto their Intel based Mac. Now I don’t have a crystal ball or anything, but based on the fact that the transition from Intel to Apple Silicon isn’t Apple’s first rodeo when it comes to changing chip technology, you can make some intelligent guesses based on Apple’s prior history:

First, though Apple doesn’t say it, the company typically supports its products with five or more years of software updates. Specifically security updates. So one can reasonably expect that once the Intel Macs that are supported by Apple reach that five year mark, it’s game over for those Macs. Let’s put that into practice. This is the list of Macs that are supported by macOS Sequoia:

The oldest Mac on this list is the iMac Pro which is way beyond the 5 years of software support that Apple typically provides. The MacBook Pro’s, Mac mini, from 2018-2020 are the next oldest. Followed by the Mac Pro and iMac from 2019. All those Macs are within the 5+ year window that I spoke of earlier in terms of software support. MacBook Air owners who have Intel processors are already out of luck as the 2020 model was the first Apple Silicon model. So based on that, I anticipate that the 2026 version of macOS will be the first one with only Apple Silicon support.

If we look at history, my theory holds water. Consider the following sequence of events from the last time Apple changed processor technology. When they went from IBM’s PowerPC to Intel, this happened:

• Apple announced the move from PowerPC to Intel in June of 2005.
• January 2006 had the first release of an Intel Mac. Specifically the iMac and the PowerBook Pro.
• By August of that year, every computer in Apple’s lineup transitioned to Intel.
• In August of 2009, macOS Snow Leopard was the first version of macOS that only worked on Intel. Though this version still supported PowerPC applications via the “Rosetta” translation layer that was built into the operating system.
• Rosetta was yanked in July 2011 when macOS Lion came out

All of that was a roughly 5 year timespan. That makes 2026 as a date for the demise of Intel Macs plausible. More so if you consider that Apple Silicon was announced in June of 2020 and the first Macs to have Apple Silicon showed up in November of that year.

So what should you do if you have an Intel Mac? Well, now is the time to plan your transition to Apple Silicon. This is especially true if you have a Mac that isn’t getting software updates of any sort from Apple right now. Because with no software updates from Apple, and software companies to likely not support these computers, the usefulness of these computers will nosedive pretty dramatically. Thus planning out your move to Apple Silicon in a calm manner is the way to go. That way you don’t hit 2026 and wonder what your options are.

This entry was posted on November 2, 2024 at 8:37 am and is filed under Commentary with tags Apple. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.