The IT Nerd

A new study from Juniper Research indicates that online payment fraud is set to top $343 Billion over the next five years. This number is due to fraudster innovations in the areas of account takeover fraud and identity theft, regardless of the widespread implementation of identity verification measures. The research identified physical goods purchases as the largest single source of losses, expecting this to account for 49% of cumulative online payment fraud losses globally over the next five years, growing by 110%. Lax address verification processes in developing markets are also a major fraud risk, with fraudsters targeting physical goods specifically due to their resale potential. 

I have a pair of comments on this. The first is from Saryu Nayyar, CEO and Founder of Gurucul:

     “With account takeover fraud and identity theft being the two common tactics used to execute fraud-based attacks, even zero trust initiatives and programs are susceptible to be evaded by threat actors. This requires security teams to have a solid baseline of current identity access rules for the purpose of applying behavior analytics as a leading threat indicator. Combining abnormal user and entity behaviors with identity and access analytics can rapidly distinguish and confirm malicious activity. It is rare to find this combined set of capabilities in most SIEM and XDR platforms but is critical as identity-based attacks are becoming the norm.”

Chris Olson, CEO of The Media Trust has my second comment:

     “When it comes to online payment fraud, organizations need to take the consumer perspective seriously: consumers pay the highest price for lax security, driving reduced trust and lower brand equity over the long term. Better verification tools are a must-have – at the same time, organizations must pivot to prevention over reaction and work to harden their digital ecosystem against vulnerabilities originating from third-party vendors.

In recent years, thousands of online businesses and eCommerce sites have fallen victim to attacks through compromised payment software – Magecart continues to affect organizations in 2022; more recently, hundreds of stores were breached through a remote code execution (RCE) vulnerability in Adobe Magento. Ultimately, it’s crucial to know who your digital vendors are, monitor their activity, and eliminate potential attack surfaces at every stage of the customer’s journey.”

Clearly threat actors are evolving their attacks to score bigger paydays. Thus every effort must be made to make sure that individuals and companies aren’t victims. And that’s done by making sure that these sorts of fraud are difficult to perpetrate.

It’s only a few days away from a vote in the UK on whether the country stays in the European Union, or does a Brexit. A new survey from Juniper Research has found that 65% of UK tech employees believe that a Brexit will have a negative impact on the global tech industry.

The survey, Brexit – The Tech Industry Take, consulted employees from both UK and international firms about the likely effects of Brexit. Most of those interviewed who believed that Brexit would have a negative impact cited several reasons for their choice:

• More than 7 in 10 UK respondents who think it would be bad for the sector believe it would be harder for UK tech firms to attract and employ individuals from EU countries.
• Meanwhile, nearly two-thirds think that the industry would suffer as a result of reduced funding from the EU for the UK tech sector and that London would be less attractive as a tech hub.

However, the research also found that a significant minority (35%) of UK respondents believed that Brexit would either have little impact on the tech industry or else could even have a net positive effect.

Other key findings include:

• Almost 90% of those who felt that the tech sector would be unaffected by Brexit cited the global nature of the tech industry and how it is largely unaffected by political or geographic boundaries.
• Of those who believed Brexit to be positive for the tech sector, more than 80% cited less EU red tape as a benefit.

The survey also found that immigration was regarded as the biggest issue in the referendum, with 38% of respondents placing it at the top of their list, ahead of the economy (28%). Furthermore, 66% of respondents who expressed a preference felt that the Leave campaign had outperformed Remain.

Seeing as the vote is only a few days out, this survey may be considered a must read for those in the tech sector.

Leading mobile analyst firm Juniper Research estimates that the number of smartphone shipments exceeded 280 million in Q4 2013, with an annual total of 980 million smartphones shipped for 2013, representing 39% y-o-y growth. Here’s the highlights:

• Samsung shipped over 300 million smartphones in 2013 accounting for just over 30% of all smartphone shipments, and represented a phenomenal 40% y-o-y growth compared to 2012. However, for the first time Samsung witnessed a quarterly fall in shipments and market share, to just over 81 million in Q4 2013.
• Meanwhile, Apple posted a record quarter of 51 million iPhone sales, representing q-o-q growth of 51% and y-o-y growth of 7% compared to Q4 2012.  Apple’s iPhone ASP (average selling price) has been on the decline since Q4 2011, but rose by 10% q-o-q to $637 in Q4 2013. However, Apple’s share price dropped by 5% after the company lowered its sales outlook for 2014.
• Nokia’s handset sales dropped by nearly 30% in Q4 2013, with sales of the flagship Lumia range falling to 8.2 million in Q4 compared to 8.8 million in Q3 2013. However, 30 million Lumia smartphones were sold throughout 2013, compared to 13 million in 2012.
• LG posted another record quarter with quarterly smartphone sale exceeding 13 million for the first time, representing an increase of over 50% compared to Q4 2012. However, the company announced that although profit improved q-o-q due to improved G2 and Nexus 5 sales, it declined y-o-y due to higher marketing expenses and intensified price competition.

While several other smartphone vendors, including Lenovo, Huawei and ZTE, have managed to improve their smartphone market share y-o-y, they still face a challenge when competing against premium brands. These three vendors together are estimated to have shipped over 40 million smartphones in Q4 2014.

We’ll see if smartphone companies can grow on this in 2014.

A new report from Juniper Research has valued operator revenues generated from mobile data roaming at $42 billion by 2018. This will represent 47% of the global mobile roaming revenue, compared to an estimated 36% in 2013.

The report notes that these revenues will be driven by increasing data usage, as operator migration towards 4G will induce consumers to take advantage of faster broadband networks, while reductions in roaming charges will spur more frequent and heavier usage.

The new Mobile Roaming: Regulations, Opportunities & In-flight Strategies 2014-2018 report found that with LTE deployments increasing and set to grow exponentially in all markets around the world, it will continue to fuel the explosion of roaming data usage.

However, the report notes that in order to achieve the full potential of LTE roaming, successful business models towards end-users and between operators are needed. Roaming agreements for 4G LTE are in its initial stages and operators are currently looking to partner with tier one operators in developing the right wholesale model. Report author Nitin Bhas had this to say:

“Operators also need to sort out the right economics to encourage more usage at a value to the end users in order to avoid revenue erosion. They need to also provide services that are both relevant and cost effective to LTE roamers.”

Meanwhile, the report found that if the proposal to end roaming charges in the EU gets the European Parliament approval, then this would significantly impact on roaming revenue levels. Under this scenario, the report forecasts that European voice, SMS and data revenues would decline by just over 20% in 2016. However, the actual volume of usage and number of active roamers will continue to rise over the forecast period.

Unsurprisingly, the proposal for such a regulation is witnessing fierce opposition from operators, including Vodafone, Orange and Telefonica.

Clearly roaming is going to be the big revenue source for carriers in the next few years. Thus it makes this report required reading to see how you fit into that.

A new report from Juniper Research has found that annual retail payments on mobile handsets and tablets are expected to reach $707 billion by 2018, representing 30% of all eRetail by that time. This compares with mobile retail spend of $182 billion last year, when mobile accounted for around 15% of eRetail.

The report – Mobile Payment for Digital & Physical Goods: Opportunities & Forecast 2014-2018 – found that leading retailers were increasingly developing strategies built around mobile, using it as a ‘hub’ facilitating payment, product discovery and customer retention. As a result, it found that the size and scale of purchases across both smartphones and tablets was increasing strongly. However, for users owning both devices there was a strong trend towards browsing on the mobile while completing the purchase on the tablet, and that by the end of 2013 global per month retail spend on tablets had eclipsed that on handsets.

The report also highlighted the increasing trend towards ‘showrooming’, where consumers examine retailer products in-store while simultaneously browsing on their mobiles to compare prices online. It argued that retailers need to adapt their strategies to incorporate this activity, by deploying tablets equipped with mPOS (mobile Point of Sale) capability throughout the store, while also introducing a price match option.

Report author Dr Windsor Holden had this to say:

‘This means that not only is the retailer proactively offering the consumer the opportunity to price check in-store, but that the purchase can be made immediately, without having to queue elsewhere in the store.’

However, the report cautioned that while retailers were increasingly optimising their sites for mobile handsets, only a small minority had done so for tablets.

Other findings from the report include:

• ‘Cyber Monday’ in 2013 saw retail sales via mobiles and tablets approach $400 million in the US alone
• For digital goods purchases, storefronts that implement direct carrier billing solutions can monetise younger demographics and unbanked users for the first time

It’s very much worth a look at this report to see the future of mobile phones in retail.

In-app mobile adspend will reach $16.9 billion by 2018, up from $3.5 billion last year, a new report from Juniper Research has found. According to the report, growth will be driven by several key factors including improved targeting capabilities, as well as a trend for more effective interactive rich media ads to be deployed in preference to traditional static display advertising.

The report – Mobile Advertising: In-App, Mobile Internet & Messaging Strategies 2013-2018 – argued that while smartphones currently account for approximately 70% of in app adspend, the growth in tablet users and usage would propel greater medium-term spend. It observed that tablet in-app adspend would be further fuelled by the fact that CPMs (Cost per 1,000 impressions) are significantly higher than those for smartphones, particularly for rich media ads, which also have higher CPMs than static display ads. By 2018, the tablet/smartphone adspend split will be almost 50/50.

The report also observed that although app downloads will increase exponentially to 2018, the majority of in-app advertising expenditure is likely to be spent on advertising with social mobile giants such as Facebook and Twitter. Nevertheless, report author Sian Rowlands remained optimistic about the opportunities for smaller developers:

‘As the mobile advertising industry matures, more sophisticated advertising solutions are being installed by leading players, with a clear trend towards utilising location-based advertising to drive greater relevance. These new technologies and formats will benefit stakeholders across the mobile advertising value network.’

Other Key Findings from the Report Include:
• Global mobile ad spend will surpass $39 billion in 2018, up from $13 billion in 2013.
• Rich media ad spend will surpass display ad spend in apps by 2018, as more engaging ad formats see huge uptake.
• Advertisers can increase conversions by simply adding mobile optimised features, for instance a ‘click to call’ button, or by linking to the relevant app store.

If you write apps, you should check out this report as it will help you to maximize your efforts.

Juniper Research has found that by 2017, annual revenues from mobile entertainment services will reach almost $75 billion. This substantial growth, from an estimated $39 billion in 2013, is primarily driven by the emergence of more sophisticated monetisation strategies, allied to a nascent ecosystem of app-centric mobile devices, such as smart watches.

The report – Mobile Entertainment: Leisure, Video, Music, Games, Adult & Gambling 2013-2018 –observed that games will continue to generate the largest share of revenue throughout the forecast period. Revenues here – and in most other content categories – are now primarily derived through a freemium model, where mobile content is upsold after an app’s download, via the in-app purchase mechanism, thus enabling the creation of an ongoing revenue stream.

Meanwhile, the report also found that Leisure & eReader apps, a segment which covers a multitude of app categories such as News, Navigation and Shopping, are also expected to exhibit strong growth over the forecast period. It also argued that there were significant longer term revenue opportunities in this sector from apps which connect to wearable devices, such as a navigation app showing directions on a smart watch, as wearable technology assumes a more integral role in the mobile ecosystem.

Juniper Research expects to see a clear ‘spike’ in mobile entertainment revenues during the Christmas 2013 period. Report author Sian Rowlands pointed out ‘Christmas provides the biggest opportunity for mobile entertainment providers in terms of exposure. Storefronts and D2C entertainment brands see a surge in activity on and immediately after Christmas Day as consumers browse and download apps for their new devices, and the recent launch of the iPad Air will undoubtedly exacerbate this’.

Other key findings from the report include:

• The Far East & China will account for the largest share of mobile entertainment revenues throughout the forecast period.
• Relatively low growth is anticipated in the adult sector, where revenues continue to be diluted by free and pirated content.
• App discovery remains a key challenge for all those in the mobile entertainment ecosystem to overcome.

Please have a look at the report and see how mobile and tablet revenue is going to be huge in the not too distant future.

Over the next five years, the number of mobile and/or tablet owners using their devices to gamble will increase by 100 million, meaning that 164 million people will either place a bet, visit a mobile casino or buy a lottery ticket on their device in 2018. These findings come from Juniper Research’s latest report on mobile gambling, which highlighted that the strongest growth would come from the North American market.

According to the report – Mobile Gambling: Casinos, Lotteries and Betting 2013-2018 – although growth has been slow in the US since the DoJ (Department of Justice) ruling in 2011, the number of users in the region is expected to pick up sharply from 2014 onwards. This will occur as states which have not yet fully legislated on remote gambling make progress following successful services launching in Nevada and New Jersey. In addition, inter-state poker, where two players in separate, regulated markets play against each other, is likely to become a reality in the medium term, further driving mobile/tablet gambling usage.

The report highlighted that the majority of these users would be switching to mobile gambling from desktop services. It attributed this migration to the fact that many features of gambling work better on a mobile device than a PC. For example, in-play betting on a mobile device does not disrupt a user’s experience when watching a live sports match, and dual-screen options on tablet casino games can enhance gameplay.

Report author, Siân Rowlands, had this to say:

‘mobile can frequently provide a more immersive and convenient gambling experience than a desktop PC or laptop. As a result of this, gambling operators have been required to shift the nature of their organisation away from “legacy” services such as telephone betting towards becoming a more mobile-oriented company, with the aim of achieving over half of their online revenues from mobile in the next 1-3 years.’

This report is worth looking at as it shows that gaming on mobile platforms is more than playing Call Of Duty.

Juniper Research has revealed that the smart wearable device shipments including smart watches and glasses will approach 130 million by 2018, 10 times more than this year. The report notes that this change in adoption levels can be attributable to heightened consumer awareness on wearable technology and a better visibility of product adoption.

Juniper’s latest report, ‘Smart Wearable Devices: Fitness, Healthcare, Entertainment & Enterprise: 2013-2018’ contends that the market attractiveness of wearable technology has led to the emergence of a host of players competing against each other and competition is expected to intensify. Report author Nitin Bhas had this to say:

“It is worth observing that this change in adoption levels can also be attributable to heightened consumer awareness on wearable technology and a better visibility of product adoption, especially in the smart watch segment”

However, with wearables set to become a crowded market place, Juniper Research believes that all these players will have a unique opportunity to take advantage of relevant and specific categories or sub segments.

The report anticipates that over time several changes will occur to the smart wearable device market, partly as a result of developments in the app model and embedded cellular connectivity. Revenue may be generated for companies, for example Fitbit and FiLIP, involved in the market through subscription to a service which is facilitated by the smart wearable device or through commission for a service rendered by virtue of the device.

For example, FiLIP is an FCC approved app-based communication watch for children which combines GPS, Wi-Fi and cellular capabilities to keep parents and kids connected via two way voice calling, messaging and location functionalities. The company’s service model includes an up-front device price and an on-going monthly plan.

Other Key Findings Include:

• Vendors need to address key hurdles and critical issues from a social and technological perspective to achieve mass adoption.
• Significant opportunities will arise for app developers – across the health, fitness, sports and communications segments.

This is a report that is worth reading if you’re interested in wearable devices. Check it out today.

A new report from Juniper Research has forecast that the number of employee owned smartphones and tablets used in the enterprise will exceed 1 billion by 2018, as the growing trend of BYOD (Bring Your Own Device) redefines business connectivity. This represents almost 35% of the total installed base of consumer owned tablets and smartphones.

Consequently, the report notes that there are a number of issues and implications that need to be addressed and a single policy or measure may not be sufficient while devising future BYOD strategies. The new report, Mobile Security: BYOD, mCommerce, Consumer & Enterprise 2013-2018, found that whilst BYOD has the potential to benefit organisations in terms of enhanced employee satisfaction and productivity, the threat from unprotected employee mobile devices is of significant importance.

Juniper Research contends that for businesses adopting BYOD, there is a need to consider mobile devices as just another endpoint – while devising measures to mitigate the challenges and the risks of managing a multi-platform environment.

Growth in the mobile security market is currently being driven by the Enterprise segment particularly in the areas of BYOD and mobile device management. In the consumer segment, Juniper forecasts a steady growth in revenue for security software, approaching 40% of the global mobile security sales revenue by the end of 2018. This will be driven primarily by increased consumer awareness of available security solutions and – critically – of the risks posed by fraud and malware to data stored on and accessible via their smartphones and tablets.

Other key findings include:

• Western Europe currently represents the largest revenue hub for the mobile security vendors.
• More than half of all mobile devices in the US will have security apps installed by the end of 2018.

If you’re responsible for a BYOD strategy in your enterprise, you should take a look at this report for some interesting insights.