The IT Nerd

A new report from Juniper Research has found that 249mn cards will be used for contactless payments next year, driven by the global migration to EMV (Europay, MasterCard, Visa) standards-based CHIP & PIN and rising contactless infrastructure at the Point of Sale (POS).

According to the report – Contactless Payment Cards: Market Prospects 2013-2018 – growth in usage will initially be driven by early adopter markets such as Australia, Canada, Poland and the UK. In the medium term, user numbers will be enhanced by substantial takeup in the US following the mandated transition from magnetic-stripe cards.

The report observed that growth in the UK had been bolstered by ticketing as well as retail usage, with more than 3.5mn London bus journeys paid for via contactless payment cards since November 2012. It also highlighted the strong retailer proposition offered by contactless, with faster throughput at checkout, reduced cash handling and increased customer retention allied to an opportunity to use contactless as a mechanism for greater consumer engagement in the form of loyalty cards.

However, the report cautioned that despite recent deployments, contactless POS terminals still accounted for a small minority of the total in nearly all markets, meaning that opportunities for usage were still severely constrained. Report author Dr Windsor Holden had this to say:

“We’re still at a comparatively early stage in the consumer contactless journey. Awareness of – and confidence in – the technology needs to increase substantially before we move to true mass adoption.”

Other findings from the report include:

• Growth is being fuelled by increased contactless transaction limits in key markets
• Where multiple contactless cards are presented in a wallet at a card reader, it is possible for the wrong card to be charged

Contactless payment is the way of the future and this report will give you a glimpse of what that future looks like.

Juniper Research has revealed that global wearable ‘Smart Glasses’ shipments will reach 10 million per annum by 2018, compared to an estimated 87,000 this year. Juniper Research notes that as the retail price for Smart Glasses decline towards the end of the forecast period, the adoption level amongst consumers will significantly increase.

Juniper’s latest report, ‘Smart Glasses: Market Prospects 2013-2018’ argues that in order for wearable devices such as smart glasses to achieve critical mass, they need to be much more than complementary devices or secondary screens. Report author Nitin Bhas added the following:

“These devices would need to incorporate intuitive and user-friendly functionalities and capture the imagination of the general public making the technology seamless within their daily routine”.

While the industry acknowledges the future for wearable computing, it is however divided on the form factor for such devices. While some consider smart watches to be more socially and naturally accepted, others promote the potential use cases for smart glasses. However, a number of hurdles such as privacy exists for smart wearable devices to overcome for mass acceptance.

The new report found that shipments of smart glasses will be driven primarily by the consumer sector, followed by the enterprise and healthcare sectors. First generation applications such as video documentation and communication will be initially used in the healthcare sector, but the true potential of smart glasses will begin to be realized when diagnostic reference, surgical assistance and monitoring can be applied. Long term growth will be achievable but regulatory approval and field trials will potentially impact timescales.

In the enterprise sector, a number of use cases for smart glasses exists, ranging from engineering to logistics applications. App developers are currently figuring out custom enterprise use cases for developing apps for smart glasses. However, the largest opportunity will be in the consumer sector with the rate of adoption largely dependent on the market availability of attractive hardware and apps.

I’d take a look at this report as it shows that tech like Google Glass may not be a fad after all.

New findings from leading hi-tech analysts, Juniper Research, has shown that the mobile Augmented Reality (AR) market, is set to increase dramatically from 60 million unique users this year to nearly 200 million in 2018. The market will expand from the early adopting gaming segment and navigation based utility to becoming an integral part of the consumer’s ecosystem. The report, Mobile Augmented Reality: Smartphones, Tablets and Smart Glasses 2013-2018, details that despite initial trepidation and single use applications of the technology, Juniper forecasts AR to become a key future platform for communication and commerce. AR has a potential to engage a new generation of consumers in a unique manner, combining the personal nature of mobile devices with the Internet’s wealth of accessible information.

Juniper’s report finds that as the market matures, the app ecosystem is set to expand rapidly over the forecast period. Initial innovations will stem from games, such as Google Ingress, but the technology will expand to include lifestyle and fitness apps. It also contends the possibility of a paradigm shifting utilisation of AR within social media, potentially breaking the digital-physical wall with potential future uses allowing a digital representation of a person to appear in the users surroundings. Juniper Research forecasts that as the AR market matures the utilisation of AR apps will evolve to suit the device, with the tablet becoming a natural environment for multimedia and second screen apps and the smartphone becoming a platform for navigation AR apps to thrive on. It notes that the forthcoming smart glasses will once again evolve this dynamic, as users will increasingly benefit from multiple AR capable devices each with unique app ecosystems. The report also notes that the mobile AR market will continue to be dominated by three key regions, North America, Western Europe and the Far East & China. These regions benefit by being some of the most developed and mature smartphone and tablet markets in the world – the key platform for AR developers. These regions will also be the first to adopt smart glasses, the next big development for AR.

Other key findings include:

• In app advertisers will see a high value / low volume market evolve over the forecast period.
• Japan will be most valuable market per user download, with the US third by 2018.

This is a very interesting report  that is worth your time to read.

A new report from Juniper Research has found that the installed base of cellular M2M devices will approach 500 million modulesby 2018, driven by more open M2M ecosystems and improved cloud-based APIs.

According to the report,  M2M & Embedded Strategies: Telematics, POS, mHealth, Metering & Buildings 2013-2018, the M2M space is seeing an increasing focus on the development of open platforms that simplify connectivity to a wide range of isolated devices through the cloud. It found that “Big Data” emerging from M2M service provision will, in time, allow for improved interrogation of M2M data, opening the door to new revenue streams for companies and M2M operators. The report found that M2M roll-outs have become increasingly global, with Mobile Network Operators facilitating M2M roaming and tailoring services and approaches to industry verticals. “Mobile technologies will play an important role in the creation of the Internet of Things, particularly as mobile chipsets and modules continue to reduce in price,” said Anthony Cox, the report’s author.

Meanwhile, the report argued that new initiatives, including the use of “white space” spectrum released from the digitisation of TV, will eventually create new platforms for widespread roll out, particularly in the US and the UK.

The report cautioned, however, that the prospects of M2M services in certain sectors, such as mHealth and consumer electronics, have been adversely affected by improvements in the smartphone/ app ecosystem and the increased ubiquity of the tablet.  This is allowing hub-based models to replace services that may have previously been offered by bespoke M2M devices.

Further findings from the report include:

M2M service provision based on 4G technology is beginning to find a market in CCTV, Mobile POS, Digital Signage, and as a backup for fixed broadband services. Telematics remains the anchor M2M industry sector as virtually all major vehicle manufacturers are now deploying or planning to deploy M2M modules in new vehicles.

This report is very much worth looking at. Check it out.

Juniper has put out numbers in terms of who’s sold what in the smartphone universe during the third quarter of this year. The numbers might surprise you.

• Samsung shipped an estimated 85 million smartphones, representing 34% market share in Q3
• Apple sells 33.8 million smartphones, growing 26% year over year.
• Nokia posts its best ever Lumia sales at 8.8 million, and a total smartphone shipments of nearly 15 million.
• LG shipped 12 million smartphones in Q3 2013, representing a 24% increases year-over-year.
• BlackBerry recent results which run to a different financial schedule are expected to see them ship just under 4 million smartphones in Q3 2013.

So in Q3 Apple grew 26% year over year but couldn’t keep pace with arch-rival Samsung. In fact, Samsung shipped more phones than Apple, Nokia LG and BlackBerry combined. Clearly they are gaining marketshare at an astounding rate. Another surprise is Nokia who was essentially left for dead shot to number three. That’s an impressive comeback.

Q4 will be interesting to watch as you should see more shipments of the Apple iPhone 5S and 5C, the latter being very hard to get at the moment. That may turn the tide back in their favor. Or perhaps Samsung will widen its lead.

Stay tuned.

International remittances via mobile phones will exceed $10bn for the first time this year, according to a new report from Juniper Research. However, the report – Mobile Money Transfer & Remittances: Domestic & International Markets 2013-2018 – found that the cost and complexity of regulating cash transfer had led many service providers to focus exclusively on airtime topups.

According to the report, only a handful of players – such as eServGlobal’s HomeSend along with established money transfer organisations Western Union and Moneygram,– were seeing significant traction on mobile. It argued that in many cases, early service providers had failed to establish a critical mass of mobile wallets in recipient markets, reducing the opportunity for inbound remittance.

However, the report claimed that regulatory complexity had been the primary hurdle. Report author Dr Windsor Holden observed the following:

“Service providers must first obtain licences for each remittance corridor; they face due diligence and risk assessment checks, which may in turn oblige them to introduce additional mechanisms to address any issues which emerge. All these processes are time consuming and expensive.”

But while international cash remittance growth has been slow, transaction volumes have surged in the airtime topup market, where service providers are not required to obtain money licences. The report found that average annual airtime topups across key remittance corridors were in excess of average individual mobile spend levels in receiving countries, thereby covering recipient telecommunications bills for the year.

Other findings from the report include:

·         Nearly 400mn mobile phone users worldwide are expected to use their handsets for mobile money transfer by 2018

·         Mobile money taxes in sub-Saharan Africa are threatening the growth of domestic money transfer services

This is a very interesting report that I hope that you’ll take some time to read.

A new report from Juniper Research has found that increased utilisation of analytics platforms, allied to the introduction of innovative ad formats and purchasing mechanisms, will push global mobile ad spend beyond $39 billion in 2018, up from $13 billion this year.

The report titled Mobile Advertising: In-App, Mobile Internet & Messaging Strategies 2013-2018 highlighted the opportunities offered by targeted in-app advertising, citing the dramatic success of Facebook in monetising its native applications over the past year. Mobile now contributes 41% to its overall advertising revenue. Facebook recently announced that it is going to begin rolling out video ads, a move illustrative of the wider industry trend for interactive rich media ads, away from underperforming mobile banner adverts. Furthermore, the report observed that the growth of Real-Time Bidding (RTB), a mechanism which lets advertisers buy impressions in real-time, means that publishers will be able to more easily sell their advertising inventory, which will thereby boost overall mobile ad spend.

However the report also pointed out that some brands still remain wary of the mobile channel due to concerns that mobile advertisements may be perceived as inappropriate or intrusive. Indeed, the report noted the disproportionately low spend on mobile advertising, versus other mediums, relative to the high engagement levels that frequently occur. Report author Sian Rowlands pointed the following:

“we are witnessing a change in consumer perceptions of mobile advertising as advertisers begin to use opt-in, or reward-style advertising; by harnessing big data and location information, mobile ads are being better targeted to users.”

Other Key Findings from the Report Include:

•    The fastest growing region, in terms of mobile ad spend, will be the Indian Subcontinent. Spend here will increase four times from 2013 to 2018.

•    Advertisers can increase conversions by simply adding mobile optimised features, for instance a ‘click to call’ button, or by linking to the correct app store.

I’d say that you should take a look at this report to see the future of mobile ads. 

Juniper Research, has revealed that the retail revenue from smart wearable devices, including smart watches and glasses, will reach $19 billion by 2018 compared with $1.4 billion this year. Revenues will be driven by high price points for these devices allied to their anticipated strong market demand.

In its latest report, Juniper Research has revised upwards the adoption of devices in the two key segments of consumer electronics ‘Multimedia & Entertainment’, and ‘Multi-functional’ devices. Revisions such as these are common in the early years of a new technology category, and reflect the latest announcements from vendors across the sector. Report author Nitin Bhas had this comment:

“It is worth observing that this change in adoption levels can also be attributable to heightened consumer awareness of wearable technology and a better visibility of product adoption, especially in the smart watch segment”

The report anticipates that over time several changes will occur in the smart wearable device market, partly as a result of developments in the app model, and partly due to the increasing use of embedded cellular connectivity within devices. Subscription revenues will be possible for certain sectors within the market. Companies such as Fitbit and FiLIP are seeking to develop recurring revenues through premium services – facilitated via the smart wearable device or through commission for a service rendered by virtue of the device.

For example, FiLIP is an FCC approved app-based communication watch for children which combines GPS, Wi-Fi and cellular capabilities to keep parents and kids connected via two way voice calling, messaging and location functionalities. The company’s service model is expected to include an up-front device price and an on-going monthly plan. Other Key Findings Include:

· Vendors need to address key hurdles and critical issues from a social and technological perspective to achieve mass adoption.

· Significant opportunities will arise for app developers – across the health, fitness, sports and communication segments.

The complimentary whitepaper, ‘Smart wearables…beyond mobile, is now available to download from the Juniper website together with further details of the full report.

Juniper Research finds that more than 80% of the total enterprise and consumer owned smartphone device base will remain unprotected through 2013, despite a steadily increasing consumer awareness of mobile security products. Juniper claims that the low level of adoption of security software can be attributed to a number of factors, including the relatively low consumer awareness about online attack on mobile devices and a widespread consumer perception that the price of security products is excessive.

The report found that nearly 1.3 billion mobile devices including smartphones, featurephones and tablets are expected to have mobile security software installed by 2018, up from around 325 million this year.

The Mobile Security: BYOD, mCommerce, Consumer & Enterprise 2013-2018 report found that security risks are also on the rise due to an explosion of mobile malware over the last two years. It found that cyber criminals are transitioning their focus from PCs onto the mobile platform – across both enterprise and consumer segments. These findings support Trend Micro’s data showing that that there will be more than 1 million malwares in the market by the end of this year.

Nevertheless, the report asserted that steadily increasing consumer awareness, allied to far greater visibility of product adoption levels, had resulted in rapid service adoption during H2 2012, leading to higher than anticipated service revenues.

Juniper found that growth in the enterprise space for security products is being fuelled by a number of factors, including increases in IT budgets and greater implementation of security policies and security products; along with training for employees. However, with the trend of BYOD (Bring Your Own Device) where employees bring their own computing devices to the workplace becoming increasingly common, a single policy or measure may not be sufficient and a unified perspective on mobile platform risks is critical.

·  Despite the prevalence of free security software, the scale of cyber-crime’s expansion in the mobile arena offers a clear opportunity for the creation of a new revenue streams for mobile security providers.

·  Device manufacturers and security vendors need to strike a balance between security and user-friendliness.

People who are responsible for devices in enterprises, and even those who are not will find this report interesting.

A report from Juniper Research has found that Mobile Operators worldwide are set to gain from a significant reduction in churn through the adoption of Big Data and Analytics techniques, equivalent to an increase in revenues of almost $4bn a year by 2018. The report found that the implementation of analytics platforms was enabling operators to anticipate the likelihood of customers to churn, to take preventative action and thereby reduce revenue loss.

According to the report, Mobile Analytics & Big Data: Strategies for MNOs, Brands and OTTs 2013-2018 a number of leading network operators have already seen significant reductions in consumer churn levels following the implementation of analytics platforms. It cited MTN South Africa, which in 2012 deployed a Big Data programme combining subscriber information and social network analysis to determine priority users and customer networks and subsequently saw annualised churn decline by more than 20 percentage points. Report author Keith Breed had this to say:

“Although the scope for churn reduction varies by country and by operator, MNOs (Mobile Network Operators) with high numbers of Pre Pay subscribers are likely to realise the greatest benefits. By gaining control of structured & unstructured customer data for the first time, operators in emerging markets can gain far greater consumer insight than was previously the case.”  

The report also found that, while churn reduction was the primary benefit for operators in emerging markets, players in more developed markets – such as C Spire Wireless in the US – were increasingly coupling analytics with a customer loyalty programme to improve user retention.

If you want to get an idea as to how your cell company keeps you as a customer, you should read this report.