The IT Nerd

I’m guessing that the fact that the word “app” isn’t part of the BlackBerry App World is part of the upcoming BlackBerry 10 rollout. Let’s see what this blog post has to say:

Hey #TeamBlackBerry, if you were up at the wee hours of the morning today, you may have noticed a change to the BlackBerry App World web store. It is now simply called BlackBerry World. The naming change reflects a shift in the type of things you can purchase from the store as we transition to BlackBerry 10 and beyond.

As we mentioned back at BlackBerry Jam Americas, BlackBerry World will have much more than just apps – it will now be home to Videos and Music as well. BlackBerry World is going to be the one-stop shop for all of your mobile entertainment needs.

So, they’re taking an Apple like approach to try to be a “one stop shop.” Interesting strategy. I wonder if it will pay off? I guess we’ll find out at the end of the month when their media event is scheduled to take place.

RIM released their Q3 results [Warning: PDF] yesterday. The good news is that RIM reported numbers that beat revenue expectations. Here’s the highlights:

One thing about the last item. Those are shipments to carriers and retailers and NOT sales.

Here’s the bad news. Actually two pieces of bad news. RIM’s chief information officer Robin Bienfait is leaving the company at the end of this year. Hmmmm….. Read into that what you will. Here’s the second piece of bad news. The user base has shrunk to 79 million users. That’s going to hurt as it is possible that even with BB10 that these users have moved on to other smartphones.

The true test will be to see what happens at the end of January. That’s when RIM will stage a stunning comeback, or become another Palm.

RIM has had more ups and downs than a roller coaster ride lately. Here’s an up for RIM:

Donald Yacktman, whose US$19 billion mutual-fund firm has outperformed peers by picking undervalued stocks, is leading a rush of investors betting Research In Motion Ltd. and its BlackBerry smartphone can recover.

Yacktman Asset Management bought 12.2 million RIM shares last quarter, doubling the firm’s stake to about US$252 million, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Yacktman sees value in the BlackBerry’s 80 million users worldwide, its physical keyboard and the promise of a new operating system, even as the phone’s U.S. market share drops to less than 2% from 8.5% a year ago.

Clearly they see something that a lot of people don’t. That’s good for RIM. Here’s another up for RIM:

Goldman Sachs GS -0.79% is the latest to jump on the bullish train, boosting its rating to buy from neutral and lifting its price target to $16 from $9. The firm, as others have, cited growing optimism around RIM’s new smartphones, which are expected next year.

“For the first time in three years, we think out-year Street estimates are too low,” Goldman analysts wrote in a note to clients Thursday morning.

Okay. So more than one person feels that RIM has a pulse. But here’s something that’s a down for RIM:

For years, CIOs have watched iPhones force their way onto corporate networks. Now IDC reports that iPhone shipments will surpass BlackBerry shipments in the enterprise this year, noting that companies are buying iPhones “in droves.”

The report states: “By the end of 2012, Apple iOS will be the number one corporate-liable operating system device by volumes shipped. It is expected to hold onto this position throughout 2016.”

If you read the rest of the article, you’ll see the number 1 reason for this. Many employers are allowing employees to bring their own device to work. Those devices aren’t BlackBerries. Unless RIM can make the BlackBerry sexy again, then they’re doomed. It’s as simple as that.

This rollercoaster I suspect will continue until January 30th. That’s when RIM’s media event happens and that will define whether RIM lives or dies.

Well, so much for the rally for RIM stock. Morgan Stanley popped up and put an end to that in a hurry:

Investors appear to be taking the advice of Morgan Stanley analyst Ehud Gelblum, who this morning suggested they take profits because he believes the much-hyped BlackBerry 10 is doomed to failure. CNBC’s Jim Cramer did his part, reiterating his sell recommendation on Monday. The actions bring into focus that despite the recent bullish analyst reports grabbing investors’ attention, the Street is still overwhelmingly negative on RIM’s turnaround story.

The bad news didn’t end there:

But the biggest drag on the stock today appears to be a report from Kantar Worldpanel ComTech that found the BlackBerry’s market share in the U.S. has fallen to a tiny 1.6 per cent, as Apple Inc.’s iPhone continued to win over consumers with its new models.

The result? Predictable. The stock on the Toronto Stock Exchange is down 10%. It’s down a similar amount on the NASDAQ where RIM shares also trade.

Is it time for the fat lady to start singing? No. But whatever RIM has to show on January 30th better be stellar because the fat lady is warming up.

Fresh off the this analyst saying that RIM might have a pulse, comes another report that says something similar. National Bank Financial analyst Kris Thompson has joined the fray to say this:

“We think there is more money to be made ahead of the C2013 launch of BB10,” the analyst said in a note to clients. “The new management team is executing by maintaining the BlackBerry subscriber base, managing costs and cash, and seemingly readying a February 2013 BB10 global platform launch.”

This caused the stock the to rise on the TSX. So I guess that those who hold out hope for RIM have hopped onto the bandwagon. Now I’ve been very critical of RIM but I have to say that what I have seen of BlackBerry 10 looks good. But the question is this, is it too little too late? Clearly investors don’t think so. But we shall see very shortly.

At least RIM is getting some good news. Peter Misek of Jefferies & Co has who has bashed RIM in the past has now increased his stock price target to $10 from $5 and changed his rating on the stock from “underperform” to a “hold.” He also had this to say:

“Preliminary results from our quarterly handset survey indicate developed market carriers have a much more positive view of BB10 than we expected,” Misek said in a note to clients.

He also had this to say:

Misek cautioned that there is still downside if RIM’s gamble on BB10 fails, but he noted that the stock could be worth as much as $43 within the next 12 months if RIM’s bet pays off and its new operating system gets licensed by other handset makers.

The result? The stock has been up over the last couple of days. Perhaps they have some hope. We’ll see AFTER their media event at the end of January.

I guess that RIM must have gotten feedback similar to what I posted yesterday. Reuters is reporting that RIM COO Kristian Tear said that new BlackBerry devices will be available ”not too long after” their January 30th media event:

“We’re working hard right now to make sure all the bits and pieces and all the details are in place for the date, when the devices will be available for consumers and enterprises,” Tear told Reuters in an interview.

This is a good thing as long as “shortly” truly means “shortly.” If it’s more than a month, maybe two, start writing the obituary for RIM.

For those who were waiting for RIM to put a date to the launch of BlackBerry 10, one now exists. January 30th is the date to “launch” BlackBerry 10 according to a press release that hit the web today:

Research In Motion (RIM) (NASDAQ: RIMM; TSX: RIM) announced today that it will hold its BlackBerry® 10 launch event on January 30^th, 2013. The event will happen simultaneously in multiple countries around the world.  This day will mark the official launch of its new platform – BlackBerry 10, as well as the unveiling of the first two BlackBerry 10 smartphones.  Details on the smartphones and their availability will be announced at the event.

“In building BlackBerry 10, we set out to create a truly unique mobile computing experience that constantly adapts to your needs.  Our team has been working tirelessly to bring our customers innovative features combined with a best in class browser, a rich application ecosystem, and cutting-edge multimedia capabilities.  All of this will be integrated into a user experience – the BlackBerry Flow – that is unlike any smartphone on the market today,” said Thorsten Heins, President and CEO of Research In Motion.  “Thanks to our strong partnerships with global carriers and a growing ecosystem of developers, we believe our customers will have the best experience possible with BlackBerry 10.  We are looking forward to getting BlackBerry 10 in the hands of our customers around the world.”

The thing is, this is simply a launch event. Customers will not be able to get their hands on a BlackBerry 10 on that day. Given the fact that they’re behind Google and Apple, that’s not a good thing. You can be sure that they’ll say that they got BlackBerry 10 to market in Q1 2013, but unless you can actually buy one on that day it doesn’t count in my mind. Why? It could be days, weeks, or months before you could actually buy one. RIM would do themselves a favor by making sure that customers can get new BlackBerry devices as quickly as possible after this launch event. Having said that, Apple has made this formula work. But RIM isn’t Apple.

Still, at least they have something to show and talk about. That’s better than nothing.